Anthony Albanese has finally said the quiet part out loud about the First Home Guarantee: it could lift prices. Treasury modelling points to a “slight” increase, according to the PM. That’s the trade-off when demand support arrives before new supply.
For first-home buyers, it shortens the deposit journey and removes LMI for sure, but for the market, it risks adding heat to it.
The upside of this reality is that the uptick is likely to be largely confined to established houses, meaning the price point of new builds will likely become more attractive as a result.
In this week’s newsletter, we ponder whether talking about “The Big 4” banks should in fact be changed to “The Big 5”.
Macquarie’s mortgage book just cleared the $150 billion mark, a symbolic line that confirms its shift from niche challenger to a fifth force competing head-to-head with the majors.
Recent updates show Macquarie’s home loan portfolio grew briskly this year, pushing past $150bn and extending its run of above system growth.
What’s powering the rise?
Three things: sharp, tactical pricing; slick digital processing; and a broker-first model.
Macquarie leans heavily on the third party channel – industry reporting has its broker-sourced share in the mid-90s%, which matters in a market where brokers now write ~75–77% of new residential loans.
In other words, Macquarie is gaining share where most customers actually shop.
The broader landscape also helps the “Big 5” narrative.
ANZ’s acquisition of Suncorp Bank has intensified competition and scale among the majors, encouraging all large players to defend (or win) share with faster turnarounds and sharper offers, particularly on shorter fixed terms and targeted LVR bands.
For referrers and borrowers, the practical takeaways are clear:
- More genuine choice. A bigger Macquarie means another top-tier engine competing on rate, policy, and speed, not just a headline special.
- Broker channel leverage. With brokers handling the majority of new flows, lender policies are increasingly written with broker workflows in mind
- Pricing moves fast. Above-system growth tends to coincide with tactical repricing. A rate that looked “good enough” last fortnight may now be beatable.
Zooming out, APRA’s monthly ADI data set is the scoreboard lenders watch to track share, and the recent prints back the story: Macquarie’s slice of Australia’s $2-plus trillion housing pie has been climbing while some peers tread water.
We’re not saying the Big 4 are going anywhere, but the mortgage market increasingly behaves like a Big 5, and that extra rivalry is good news for well-prepared clients.
Variable
The rates below are based on a $500,000 loan, with the borrower making principle and interest payments with a loan term of 30 years. The rates quoted may vary depending on the borrowers LVR.
1 Year Fixed
The rates below are based on a $500,000 loan, with the borrower making principle and interest payments with a loan term of 30 years. The rates quoted may vary depending on the borrowers LVR. At the end of the three year fixed period, the borrowers interest rate will revert to a standard variable rate for the life of the loan.
